As the 2024 U.S. Presidential election approaches, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is intensifying, with recent polling data reflecting a competitive landscape. Here’s an updated overview of their positions, policies, and key sectors to watch based on the latest polls.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
- Kamala Harris: Recent polls indicates that Harris holds a slight lead over Trump. According to the Cooperative Election Study (CES), she is ahead by 4 percentage points among likely voters, with 51% supporting her compared to 47% for Trump1. However, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows both candidates tied at 48%2. This discrepancy highlights the volatility in voter sentiment as Election Day approaches.
- Donald Trump: Trump remains a formidable opponent, with various polls showing him either close to or leading Harris in critical battleground states. According to recent Times/Siena data5, he leads by 13 percentage points in Florida and 6 points in Texas. His campaign continues to emphasize military modernization and deregulation, appealing to his base’s desire for economic growth and security.
Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee, and analysts have speculated on whether she will continue pursuing Biden’s policies. Harris also offers the possibility of a Silicon Valley Commander-in-Chief with more progressive leanings on green energy and technology, whereas Trump’s 2024 proposals and focus call for modernizing the military and increasing domestic manufacturing, and he’s overturned restrictions on big banks.
Key Sectors to Watch: Kamala Harris
1. Information Technology: Kamala has received numerous endorsements from Tech Industry leaders. In her experience as a Senator, her record showed a balanced stance between growth and responsible governance in the tech sector. Key companies in this sector include Oracle, Zeta Holdings and Adobe.
2. Alternative Energy: The flagship piece of legislation from the Biden Administration, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) allocates substantial funding for clean energy initiatives, and as President, Harris would oversee the implementation of these initiatives. Harris has highlighted the importance of expanding clean energy manufacturing jobs such as solar panel and wind turbine production, and domestic alternative energy manufacturers stand to benefit. Key companies in this sector include First Solar, Brookfield Renewable and NextEra Energy.
The IRA directs nearly $400 billion in federal funding to clean energy, with the goal of substantially lowering the nation’s carbon emissions by the end of this decade.1 The funds will be delivered through a mix of tax incentives, grants, and loan guarantees. Clean electricity and transmission command the biggest slice, followed by clean transportation, including industrials
3. Industrials: Harris supported the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and IRA, which includes $30B for electric grid infrastructure and has a focus on domestic manufacturing that could benefit industrials across various subsectors. Last year, the United States experienced 18 separate natural disasters that resulted in millions of American families losing power. These outages hurt the economy – the Department of Energy estimates that power outages cost American businesses $150 billion annually. Additionally, increased transmission is necessary to enable more clean energy that will reduce home energy costs and cut emissions. Key companies in this sector include General Electric, United Parcel Service(UPS) and Boeing.
Donald Trump’s Agenda 47, a collection of formal policy plans, and his policies in his previous administration suggest that the sectors below would benefit from a Trump presidency.
Key Sectors to Watch: Donald Trump
1. Defense: Defense procurement spending rose by 24.8% between 2017 and 2020 compared to the prior administration, aligning with Trump’s agenda focused on military readiness. This trend is expected to positively impact the aerospace and defense industries.
Defense Department budgets approved during Trump’s term amounted to $2.9 trillion in inflation-adjusted dollars, surpassing the totals from the latter years of former President Barack Obama’s administration, which were $2.7 trillion. However, during Obama’s first four years, defense budgets, when adjusted for inflation, reached nearly $3.3 trillion. Key companies in this sector include Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies and General Dynamics.
2. Financials: Republicans firmly believe that Rolling Back the Dodd-Frank Act will ease financial institution operations and increase market efficiency leading to expansion of the economy. Trump promised to “dismantle” Dodd-Frank, a law Republicans have long opposed and promoted the bill he signed as a first step toward that goal. Although the bill eases Federal Reserve oversight for numerous banks, it stops short of fully repealing and replacing Dodd-Frank, as the president had pledged. Key companies in this sector include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and American Express.
3. Construction and Engineering: Trump’s Agenda 47 proposes establishing 10 new cities on undeveloped federal land and expediting approvals for infrastructure projects, which could drive demand for construction and engineering firms and boost growth in the sector. Key companies in this sector include Argan Inc, Green Brick Partners and Sterling Construction Co.
What’s Next for The U.S.?
The outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election could significantly impact various sectors. A Harris administration would likely support tech, clean energy, and industrial initiatives aligned with green infrastructure, while a Trump administration would emphasize defence, financial deregulation, and construction. Investors should keep a close watch on these sectors and relevant stocks as Election Day approaches
